Dear Partners,

Bizantine Multistrategy returned 63.4% in Q4 of 2024. Bizantine has now returned +182.0% since our inception on January 1st, 2022. In Q4, we outperformed Bitcoin by 14.3% and outperformed the S&P 500 by 60.5%. Since inception, we have outperformed Bitcoin by

9/30/2024 - 12/31/2024 (Fourth Quarter):

1/1/2024 - 12/31/2024 (2024):

1/1/2022 - 12/31/2024 (Inception):

This past year has marked the reinforcement and validity of the cryptocurrency markets on a global scale. Our fund has kept steadfast in our commitment to navigating the ever-shifting market dynamics, and has firmly positioned itself at the forefront of the crypto currency landscape. Most importantly, our fund has held an industry standard by benchmarking our performance against Bitcoin, which we have firmly outperformed since inception. Without a doubt, 2024 has been one of the most important years in crypto’s entire history and has firmly affirmed the inherent velocity nature of crypto. Never has political and macro developments played such an important role in the industry, highlighted by an 88% increase year over year in overall market size. As of year-end, the cumulative crypto market cap sits at 3.4 trillion USD, with Bitcoin’s market cap alone close to 2 trillion alone. We had outlined in our 2023 year-end report how excited we were for new asymmetric opportunities that would emerge in 2024, which has helped led to our overall market outperformance this year. We frequently comment on the role of price and liquidity in terms of asset reflexivity, and that could not be more prevalent than in the performance of these assets. If one were to look at the top 100 digital assets on January 1, 2024 vs those of the top 100 on January 1, 2025, one would notice a wide mixture of asset and coin positioning. Accordingly, it remains important to position ourselves to maximize the correspondence between macroeconomic liquidity and true crypto fundamentals.

New Trends Outperform

At the end of 2023, a range of new narratives within crypto were begun to take shape. Artificial intelligence, GameFi, Memecoins, the Solana Ecosystem, Decentralized Science, and real-world assets began to take shape and have been outperformers in this entire cycle. Previous cycle incumbents, namely NFTs, Decentralized Finance, and Ethereal Layer Two’s, have shown fundamental developments but still lag significant price discovery as opposed to these newer trends. Solana has experienced a 3x multiple in its price since the beginning of 2024, and has centered itself as the main hub for Memecoin trading, one of 2024’s most prominent trends. Artificial intelligence tokens (TAO, FET, RNDR) developments were led on Ethereum and custom built-chains, and the top AI coins have seen multiples in priced increases as well. These AI coins have benefited from growth drivers such as AI-blockchain integrations, agent-based ecosystems, and general market momentum for this niche. Overall, AI tokens market value surpassed $39 billion.

Bizantine has capitalized on the general market momentum by holding a weighted balance between Bitcoin, ETH, and Solana. We are also at the forefront of a new emerging asset class within crypto that took shape in Q4, notably Decentralized Science (DeSci). With endorsement from Vitalik Buterin (Founder of Ethereum) and CZ (Founder of Binance), the sector shot up rapidly with further innovative applications, increased adoption, and institutional interest. The sector’s expansion signals further growth, with half of the top 10 DeSci projects by market cap launched in 2024. We will be on the lookout for further volatility in the sector, and navigating the regulatory uncertainty around bridging pharmaceuticals to blockchain technology. With realworld assets (RWA) as a prominent trend in crypto, we expect that DeSci will integrate as an asset class within this broader development. We summarize the top crypto narratives of the last 2 years in the charts below, which we will use to reinforce our investment outline for 2025.

Top Crypto Narratives 2024

The top 20 crypto narratives accounted for a total 78.72% of global investor interest, out of a diverse pool of 200 narratives that received attention this year. The remaining 21.28% of crypto narrative interest was spread across 180 narratives.

Top Crypto Narratives 2024

In 2025, Bizantine will create and scout new trends in AI, biosciences, and high velocity token plays. We believe Decentralized Science and AI coins will continue on the come up, and see a potential synergy for cross integration in investment thesis there. We also anticipate that trends of the previous cycles such as NFTs and DeFi may have another leg up in them.

Crypto Macro

2024 on the macro was filled with key events and developments. Most notably, Bitcoin surpassed 100,000 USD for the first time, driven by record ETF adoption, continued geopolitical tensions, and resultant major institutional adoption. With over 2 trillion USD in market cap, Bitcoin ranks as one of the top 10 asset classes in the world now. Bitcoin’s market cap trajectory reflects its role in as a macroeconomic hedge and digital gold, and, with further macroeconomic developments in 2025, is anticipated to continue growing. Coincidentally or historically, Bitcoin always seems to perform well in Halving cycles (block reward reductions) with 2024 being the first one since 2020. In all, Bitcoin’s ETF saw over 35 billion USD in flows all last year. Ethereum, the leading indicator asset of all crypto altcoins, saw ETF approvals in May and has since attached over 12.01 billion USD in net flows as well.

With increased institutional interest in crypto’s macroeconomic utility, there has been more than $485 million in VC funding for blockchain start-ups throughout 2024, spread out in sectors such as layer 1s/infrastructure, AI crypto startups, and web3 gaming. Geographically, US markets dominated VC funding with HK/Singapore in second. Increased regulatory clarity throughout the globe, including mandates for crypto advancement, will carry a renewed focus on real world applications and infrastructure in these deals.

As highlighted in our Q3 annual, MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Strategy may serve as a future blueprint on companies seeking to increase funding by crypto. They increased Bitcoin holdings by 11% this year, and now hold over 400,000 Bitcoins. MicroStrategy contributes to 2.2% of Bitcoin’s total supply

Politically, Crypto saw over 119 million USD spent on 2024 US election influences, with major donors including a16z, Fairshake super PAC, and Coinbase. Politics aside, the 2024 US election outcome was a major win for crypto as an industry and resulted in overall market price appreciation. President Trump has advocated thus for pro-crypto policies, including a national Bitcoin reserve, an Ethereum-native DeFi application, and a Solana meme coin.

A transformative year 2024 truly was marked by significant price milestones, regulatory approvals, technological advancements, and increased mainstream adoption. Bizantine remains very optimistic in the intersection of macroeconomic conditions, improved regulatory clarity, and blockchain’s growing technological adoption for an even greater 2025. Strategic positioning in major crypto niches will set us up to outperform traditional markets. We have set a targeted emphasis on the leading non-sovereign moneys and the most innovative, yet undercooked applications, and embark on our ability to greater merge the traditional and crypto markets.

On Ethereum 2025 and Beyond

Ethereum’s ecosystem, despite varied price action, showed significant progress and growth in 2024. In 2025, we expect intensive price variability, driven by the belief that the markets will come to recognize Ethereum’s leading edge in crypto market trends, smart contract technology, institutional adoption, and AI positioning.

Ethereum saw major upgrades in layer-two infrastructure development, and continued display of its lead among innovative on-chain application development. As the most malleable blockchain, Ethereum has the potential for the entire tokenization of real world assets, which is predicted to represent 10% of global GDP by 2030. With further increases in staking, transaction throughput, and application innovation, we believe Ethereum is prime positioned as the best smart contract platform to integrate with traditional markets.

Bizantine continues to re-affirm our thesis of Ethereum’s major value preposition in terms of utility, classifying its stronger monetary function and premium than Bitcoin’s. We expect the underlying factors helping Bitcoin outperform these two years such as MicroStrategy, positioning within a macro narrative, and the digital gold story will also apply at scale to Ethereum. Due to Ethereum’s extensive use case availabilities, we believe the effects will be even more profound. On these developments and firmly as the world’s second largest crypto asset, we expect Ethereum to revisit All-time highs and re-establish a consistent price uptrend. Optimistic scenarios including 6,000-10,000 USD at year end. Additional factors influencing growth including layer 2 scaling (roll up enhancements improving transition speed and reducing costs), Defi/NFT expansion (Ethereum remains a leader in decentralized applications), and institutional interest through investment and ETF staking approvals.

In 2024, real transactions per second on Ethereum Layer 2 (l2) solutions exploded along with Total Value Locked (TVL) in L2s. Transaction fees remain low after implementation of EIP 4844, allowing users to send any amount for less than a cent on l2s. Most vividly, the total number of unique Ethereum addresses increased by 39.6 million (+15.76%), with an average daily growth of 108,200 addresses. A key technical development we see in 2025 for Ethereum is the further value accruing mechanisms of L2 protocols to the underlying L1 platform level which is Ether itself. We expect the Ethereum development community to globally be on onboard with this track.

We are very bullish on Ethereum’s interaction with AI which has evolved rapidly the last few years. The Ethereum Foundation, with recent changes at its stalwart, has recently announced that AI focused enterprise partnerships are in the near term pipeline. These collaboration aims to improve the efficiency and capabilities of smart contracts on the Ethereum network. AI algorithms are also playing an increasingly significant role in Ethereum trading, accounting for 30% of total ETH trading volume in 2024 alone. We are seeing the onset of various machine learning applications applied within the Ethereum ecosystem that will be used to optimize transaction processing efficiency, enhance smart contract security, etc. AI efficiencies will help security enhancements, a key factor and risk of multiple blockchain platforms. The key trends we see in Ethereum’s further integration with AI include further innovation, security enhancement, and create new ecosystem opportunities in the blockchain space.

Ethereum is expected to maintain dominance in the blockchain space, with price movements reflecting broader crypto market trends. Despite this, we are aware of other Layer 1s in their competition aspect against Ethereum. Price action reflects this as Ethereum appreciated 70% in 2024, while Bitcoin and Solana reached 142% and 107%. We would like to see the scalability and regulatory uncertainties be addressed as they have limited the growth potential of Ethereum in the last 2 years. These developments are already in the works with Ethereum scheduled for the Pectra upgrade this Spring which aims to address critical protocol issues and improve user experience. On top of this, Ethereum continues to cater and steward the world’s largest decentralized developer community, with an outsized mindshare in technical blockchain progresses.

Decentralized Science

HairDAO, a decentralized autonomous organization focused on hair loss research and treatments, has made significant progress in the DeSci space as of December 2024. Its governance token, HAIR, reached an all-time high of $150.38 in November 2024. HairDAO's key features include token-based governance, funding for early-stage hair loss research, and minting intellectual property as NFTs. Analysts predict the HAIR token price could reach as high as $220.09 by the end of 2025, with long-term projections for 2030 estimating into the hundreds of dollars per token. As part of the growing DeSci movement, HairDAO's unique approach to funding and developing hair loss treatments through a decentralized model distinguishes it in both the crypto and biotech sectors. The organization recently launched an on-chain telehealth service, demonstrating innovation in blockchain-healthcare integration. Further upcoming developments include HairDAO implementing a pipeline for hair loss research studies designed for funding, conducting, and minting as IP-NFTs. HairDAO is part of the growing DeSci movement, utilizing cryptocurrency and blockchain technology to facilitate real-world innovation in biomedical research.

The Decentralized Science (DeSci) landscape in 2025 is characterized by rapid evolutions which has leveraged blockchain technology to address inefficiencies in traditional scientific research and funding systems. Key trends for 2025 include more innovative DAO funding pools, enhanced data transparency, community collaborations, and the tokenization of intellectual property. Emerging applications such as decentralized clinical trials and AI-integrated DAOs are streamlining processes and accelerating funding decisions. However, regulatory uncertainties and resistance from traditional researchers pose challenges to widespread adoption. Despite these hurdles, DeSci is transforming the scientific ecosystem by democratizing access and improving funding efficiency. With the global biotech and science industry valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, with believe that DeSci (currently around one billion USD in market cap among all projects) has a legitimate chance of capturing a significant share of the overall market. As infrastructure, data services, and decentralized governance continue to advance, DeSci has the potential to bridge critical gaps in scientific research and accelerate innovation across various fields.

On 2025

We believe 2025 will primarily be driven by deregulation, with much improved sentiment among developers and builders in unlocking new paradigms for crypto expansion. We could potentially see a major influx of companies and mindshare migrating back to the US, as the US has created a concerted effort to establish itself as the world’s crypto hub. As for the broader macro thesis, lower interest rates and tax cuts would signal higher demand for risk-on assets. We believe AI is, in tandem with crypto, the most important industry of the coming years, and the crypto market’s chance to intersect with AI and create extremely efficient digital systems remains a key opportunity for Bizantine. Specifically, the advent of AI agents on the blockchain has for the first time led to automated application developments instead of manual programming. However, we take caution in the fact that the last 2 years has seen the proliferation of an asset class with 10s of millions of new crypto tokens. Likely, the threshold to be a well-developed and strong project will only get harder, which makes the demand for top tier experience and visibility in the space even more prevalent. Very likely, crypto may reverse soon back to more fundamental aspects of valuation, as the last two years has redefined investment philosophy in a more memetic and velocity-driven approach. A renewed focus on institutional adoption and technological integration will expand entire use cases for blockchain technology. Nonetheless, crypto markets have exhibited ongoing maturation and diversion as a real asset class in institutional portfolios.

致所有 Bizantine 的投资⼈们：

2024 年是我们 Bizantine Multistrategy 正式成⽴的第三年。以“⻓线投资”为主要⻛格的我们，在 2024 年取得了不错的收益回报。

整个 2024 年，我们共实现了 +111.1% 的净值收益，从 2022-2024，我们的总收益来到了+182.01% （pre fees），可以很骄傲的说，这两项业绩，都相⽐于同期 BTC 有接近或者更⾼的涨幅。相对应 的，我们发现市场上知名 crypto fund 普遍没有在 2024 年披露其收益率，不过亚洲范围内，我们了解 到，以华⼈背景为主的知名基⾦内⼤多数都遇到了流动性危机。在这⼀点上，我后续会加以陈述。

今年发⽣了什么？

2024 年对于加密市场来说，是⼀个动荡⽽充满机遇的年份。尽管市场在第三季度遭遇了⼀定的回撤， 但整体来看，2024 年加密市场在经历了数轮震荡后，仍表现出强劲的增⻓势头。市场总市值在第四季 度的表现尤为突出，较第三季度增⻓了 45.7%，并且在 12 ⽉中旬达到了历史新⾼——3.91 万亿美元， 相较年初增⻓超过 100%。这些数字背后的原因，除了全球经济环境的波动之外，也离不开各⼤机构和 市场参与者对未来的信⼼恢复。

BTC当然是其中最重要的⼀份⼦。2024年⼀头⼀尾，1⽉11⽇SEC正式通过BTC ETF，11⽉6⽇特朗普当选美国总统后对数字货币政策⼤幅趋好，整体来看，这轮⽜市，美国的政策因素是其中最重要的推⼿。BTC市占率继续攀升，已稳居加密市场的主导地位，在2024年绝⼤部分时间内超过50%。 2024年，BTC的价格在多个因素的推动下突破了100,000美元⼤关，并于12⽉创下历史新⾼，突破109000美⾦。

有趣的是，如果你看英伟达2024年年内最⼤涨幅，以及⼏个最显著的⾼点，都和BTC差不多（当然我不认为这两者有很强的正相关效应）——好⽍在2024年，crypto⾏业在赚钱效应上没有⼤幅落后于AI。

同时，XRP的崛起成为第四季度的⼀⼤亮点，其市值在2024年Q4 翻了近五倍，市占率⼤幅上涨⾄ 3.5%，从第7位跃升⾄第4位，超越了BNB和Solana，且和USDT的市值只在伯仲之间。XRP上涨的主要原因是随着Ripple与SEC诉讼的进展，XRP的合规性逐渐得到认可，⼤幅度提升了投资者对XRP 及其可能的市场应⽤预期，从⽽推动价格上涨。这⼀点我也会在下⽂中加以论述。

与此同时，狗狗币（DOGE）在特朗普当选总统之后，短时间价格上涨100%，成功跻⾝市值前7名，取代了USDC。DOGE上涨的原因很⼤程度上是投资者对DOGE之⽗、特朗普最⼤的⽀持者Elon Musk 抱有预期。且在2024.11.3，特朗普发布声明宣布任命Elon Musk领导政府效率部⻔(Department of Government Efficiency，简称也是「DOGE」)。当然，对于DOGE这个币的属性，我们持相对中性，但不做配置的态度。 值得注意的是，上⼀轮⽜市势头最盛的以太坊（ETH）在这⼀轮并没有很好的表现（尤其是Q4 特朗普上任后的上涨周期），过去⼀年其涨幅⼩于40%，远低于其他主流币，同时市占率⾃第三季度的13.4%降⾄11.8%，为2021年4⽉以来的最低⽔平。我们在2024 Q4 提前意识到ETH的衰落，将持有的 ETH⼤部分换仓到BTC 和SOL，取得了更⾼的收益率。

2024⾏业热点回顾

2024 年的Web3 ⾏业多点开花，市场热点层出不穷。特别是在周期性的⽜市阶段，我们看到了更多新叙事的崛起，甚⾄⼀些叙事背后隐藏着更宏⼤的野⼼和发展潜⼒。

虽然在我们看来，并⾮每⼀次的热点都伴随着技术的⾰新或真正推动了⾏业发展；但毫⽆疑问，作为资⾦链涌⼊⼗分夸张的⼀年，2024 年的诸多叙事很⼤程度上反映了未来的趋势和重点赛道。

我们总结了2024年以下⼏个，最具代表性、最可能影响未来趋势的热点：

⽐特币⽣态崛起

2024 年1 ⽉，⽐特币⽣态的⼤战拉开序幕。Ordinals 协议的推出打破了传统的⽐特币定位，开始拓展⾄全⽅位的资产发⾏协议、扩容⽅案和应⽤层次。BRC20协议、Arc20协议等接连涌现，展现了⽐特币作为共识最强、安全性最⾼资产的潜⼒。甚⾄可以说，⽐特币⽣态的崛起是上⼀轮⽜市的发动机。

但是⽐特币⽣态来得快，去的也快；且实际并未产⽣⾮常⼤的技术⾰新。但⽐特币⽣态这次的动静，结合Q4 的⽐特币“单边⾏情”也给了投资者们警醒：Web3 ⾏业未来可能会万链归⼀，多数资产的泡沫已⼗分危险。

现实世界资产（RWA）代币化

RWA（Real World Assets）指的是将现实世界的资产（如房地产、艺术品、债券、商品等）通过代币化带到区块链上；相⽐于现实世界中的各类资产，代币化后有诸多优势：即时结算、准⼊⻔槛低、节省运营成本、增强透明度。

随着全球最⼤的资管公司Blackrock（⻉莱德）发⾏BUIDL代币化基⾦，也称为⻉莱德美元机构数字流动性基⾦，向机构投资者提供了对美国国债等资产收益的触达路径，RWA市场进⼊了⾼速增⻓阶段。听起来和普通⼈没关系？要知道，当前Web3 应⽤未能⼤量普及的原因⼀⽅⾯是技术，另⼀⽅⾯则是⻔槛。⽽RWA则能极⼤的降低普通⼈参与的⻔槛。

举个例⼦：如果你现在想要购买⼀处美国的房产，你需要先将RMB 换成美元，然后需要⼀系列法律、合规化的⼿续，甚⾄还需要你本次多次往返美国——可能你的⼿续费、⾏程费和时间成本，都⽐⼀个⼩公寓要贵；但是通过RWA把房产代币化，你只需要动动⼿指便可以拥有。

区块链⾏业的叙事⼀直都是围绕着“万物皆可代币化”这⼀核⼼主题，因此RWA赛道是区块链技术向传统世界发展的必然产物。

TON ⽣态崭露头⻆

Telegram是国外最常⽤的加密通讯⼯具（如同中国的微信），其全球⽉活超过9亿；Ton 链则是 Telegram团队创造且（唯⼀）公开⽀持的链。背靠Telegram的海量种⼦⽤户，Ton 链也迅速崛起，跻⾝进公链前10。TON链现在已经有钱包、Bot 等多种基础设施，正在构建⼀个更加开放、⾃由、⾃主的Web3 应⽤⽣态。

想象⼀下，在不考虑政策的因素下，有⼀天数亿计的微信⽤户可以像微信⽀付⼀样⽅便的使⽤数字货币⽀付，是⼀种什么场景？会给⽀付宝、QQ等其他竞品带来何种冲击？这就是Telegram和Ton 链在做的——撕开Web2.5 的⼀个⼝⼦，把⽤户平移⾄Web3 并抢占先机。

Meme 币

如果说⽐特币⽣态的崛起提醒了投资者“多数资产（⼭寨币）的泡沫已⼗分危险”，那么Meme 币的热潮则彻底将这⼀警醒变为现实。Meme 币也是加密⽂化、去中⼼⽂化的独特体现。Meme 币的热潮，其实就是告诉市场：区块链技术这么复杂、Web3 应⽤⻔槛这么⾼，那么普通⽤户就来这个⼤赌场 吧，体验交易的快感，满⾜⾃⼰快速暴富的欲望。最原始，也最纯粹。作为Meme 币最受欢迎的链，SOL的价格也是⽔涨船⾼。

仅凭⼀个概念，就可以迅速达到90% ⼭寨币Build 数年⽆法达到的⾼度，这就是Meme 币。你说⼭寨币会创造出技术⾰新，有解决⽅案？得了吧，你只是在画饼，真有解决⽅案你就不是⼭寨币了，⽽是主流币。既然都没什么有⽤的价值，有了我Meme 币，为什么还需要你⼭寨币？随着“Meme 季”的到来，“⼭寨祭”也随之来临——这轮⽜市，95% 以上的⼭寨币不涨反跌，⽽且没有⽌跌的迹象和反弹。

随着25年1⽉，特朗普发⾏了⾃⼰的Meme 币——Trump，48⼩时内市值突破800亿美⾦，更是将Meme 赛道推向了最⾼潮，也让⼈们看到了Meme 的潜⼒。

meme 币已经从⼀个纯粹的资⾦盘演变为加密社交和完整的细分赛道，成为了市场中的⼀种新型玩 法，同时也将⼭寨币最后⼀块遮羞布揭了下来。

未来，99% 的⼭寨币都将归零，市场将只剩：⽐特币、主流币和Meme币。

AI Agent

AI和Web3 都是未来不可忽视的趋势，因此相结合的点也很多。AI Agent 就代表了⼈⼯智能在Web3 领域的应⽤落地，在ai16z等项⽬的推动下，AI能够通过数据、算⼒和算法的代币化，在Web3 ⽣态甚⾄现实中实现⾃主决策和市场运作——可以理解为，你的Agent 就是你的互联⽹保姆，帮你做各种繁琐的事，并协助你（甚⾄帮你）决策；同时借助区块链技术，每个AIAgent 都可以被⽤户⼿动培 养、完善并最终出售（出租）成型的AIAgent。想象⼀下，未来某⼀天你需要法律咨询服务的时候，不需要直接花费⼏千美元去找律师，⽽是可以先花个⼏美元找⼀个律师AIAgent 帮你答疑。

当然，AI+Web3 的应⽤结合不⽌于此，包括：AI+DePIN，铺设基础设施；AI计算分布式平台，构建算⼒和算法激励⽹络；AI+MEME，⽤⼆级财富效应加速AI应⽤的市场教育和传播。AIAgent ，则是代表最终的应⽤落地和⽤户触达。

Wait——where are those token funds?

2024年，整个数字货币的⼆级市场市值翻倍，交易量更是呈⼏何倍数增加。

但是，数字货币的⼀级市场，却是降到了冰点。2024年，我们更看到了⽆数“名将”折戟——根据 Crunchbase数据，对2022、2023、2024三年新进⾏融资的知名潜在token项⽬，共约600个进⾏盘点，截⽌2024年底，其综合收益率约为-23%。

也就是说，对于⼀个经典的、主投⼀级市场的token fund，2022、2023两年熊市所投项⽬，在2024 年的⽜市理应完成发币并且实现超额收益。但那些知名项⽬，甚⾄账⾯回报平均下来都⽆法回本，更别说DPI，在2024年，币圈流动性极度向头部拥挤，⼤量⼭寨币上线后流动性完全不⾜以⽀撑token fund们⼤量的抛盘甩卖。在亚洲范围内，2021、2022年红极⼀时的⼀些知名token fund，在2022- 2024 BTC涨幅超过⼀倍的背景下，流动资⾦甚⾄收回不了30%，基本上也退出了主流市场。

这表明了⼀个更重要的变化——由那些⼤的token fund主导，或者知名品牌背书就能发币割⾲菜的时光已经过去了，靠着概念攒局、资源积累快速上线交易所并且吸引散户⼤量购买的制造项⽬⼿段，已经不复存在。或者说，即使攒局，也早已不是当年的江湖。memetoken范式的兴起，在dex上直接运作，更像是散户们对于币圈机构资⾦们的宣告——“我不买你们的帐了”。

潮起潮落，会有新的⼀批正规军接管这个市场。

当然，“交接期”，或许还有⼀波⾎⾬腥⻛。

⾏在当下，展望未来

当下的数字货币⾏业，⾃⽐特币论⽂⾯世，已经来到了第⼗⼋个年头。

今天，谈论⽐特币早已不是什么很⼩众的话题，从事这个⾏业的⼈，也是司空⻅惯。

那么，这个⾏业，现在处于什么阶段？

我摘录了我在2018-2020年间逐步成稿，并在2021年以电⼦书形式出版（纸质书在浙⼤出版社2021 年出版，但因政审原因最后⽆法上架）的《解锁新密码——从区块链到数字货币》中的第四章，对于区块链⾏业演进阶段发展的预测。

到今天，我依然坚持绝⼤部分我当时的观点，⽽现在，毫⽆疑问已经到了第三阶段的初期，第⼆阶段向第三阶段的转折基本已成定局。随着特朗普上台，美国对数字货币的全⾯合规化如⽕如荼，已经不仅仅是⼏年前像⽇本、迪拜、新加坡等国家零星出台⼀些政策这样的规模。⽽2022年明星们发⾏NFT，2024年底开始的名流们发⾏memecoin，这毫⽆疑问是前些年的⾏业积累，所诞⽣的对⺠众更⼤规模的普及。

⽽从2024年⼤⾯积开始的，RWA，数字银⾏，稳定币，区域性合规交易所项⽬，则是web2⼈群成编制的进⼊web3的重要信号，现在拥有数字货币，在全球有⼤量渠道可以实现迅速折换成法币，甚⾄作为资产证明实现现实世界中的⼀些⽬标。银⾏对数字货币的⼤规模采纳，也不过是时间问题。⼀旦传统⾦融的核⼼部⻔与数字货币打通，那么⼤量⾦融领域的创新就将⽔到渠成。

当然，参与第三阶段的项⽬投资，⽬前看来，存在固有的结构性问题——⼤多需要传统世界的强资 源，以⾦融机构和政府资源等为主，带有浓重的web2⾊彩，且基本都以股权融资，上⼿即⼏亿美⾦估值的。在这⽅⾯，经过我们的研究，更适合传统VC，尤其适合⼀些国际性的产业基⾦出⼿，⽽并⾮我们Bizantine的⻓处。我也不否认，或许在2027年往后，随着主流web2+web3⾦融顶层结构逐渐明确，会出现⼀些创新性的，更加市场化的中⼩型项⽬，届时必然有属于我们的机会。

⽽更重要的，⽆疑是第四阶段。
为什么AI领域迟早，也必须和web3深度结合？
⾸先，让我哲学化的进⾏⼀些表达：
⼈类进⼊未来数字世界，会创建⽆数的数字⼈，即AI agent。AI agent会带给⼈们更美好的⽣活。
但是，⼈类和数字⼈之间的关系如何确认？数字社会中，数字⼈被创建，我们只考虑“管理”，但这犹如原始社会中皇权和教会只强调从上⾄下的管理，以及⽤统⼀的教规建⽴教育体系束缚⼈们的思想，却没有家庭之间通过法律关系保障⼈与⼈之间的利益关系和教育⽅式。
如果AI agent的所有数据都被中⼼化控制⽽⽆法私有化部署，那么AI开发⽅公司⼀旦解散，AI agent 就会不复存在，像是灵魂随时会消失的⼈。
如果AI agent并不能和对应的⼈类，即它的“主⼈”建⽴社会关系，就像⽣下来没有⽗⺟，直接进⼊孤⼉院的孩⼦。

现实世界中有爱，我们对数字⼈的爱是因为他们更懂我们的需求，⽽爱是唯⼀的。你肯定⽆法接受你对你的数字恋⼈说的话被别的AI知道。所以，真正的AI，未来⼀定需要私有化途径，保证你和AI之间的数据和“记忆”是唯⼀的。因此，必须借助区块链保证这些数据的安全。
另外，我们愿意抚养孩⼦，也是因为他们⻓⼤后能帮到我们，帮我们赚钱，等我们⽼了有困难时尽到赡养义务。
所以，AI agent必须以NFT的形式资产化，在区块链上存在。NFT是唯⼀的标识，代表了“主⼈”和AI agent之间的联系，是最好证明“爱的联系”的⽅式。
另外，每个AI agent也必须有⾃⼰的“资产”，因此需要crypto wallet，并且通过在TEE环境中的部署和私钥代理，NFT ownership即代表对该钱包的控制权，让“主⼈”可以更好指导AI agent，进⾏资产操作。
NFT的增值，成为主⼈对其训练和数据投⼊的回报。⽽每个NFT可以发⾏⾃⼰的token，或者参与交易等，成为他们参与“数字⼈商业”的途径。

在商业化部分，我上⾯提到的思路，可能和传统主流打法不太想通。
其实⼀直以来，横亘在⼈⼯智能领域的⼀⼤难题就是，应⽤端的商业化思路。从openAI的“寒武纪爆发”到今天已经过去两年，AI应⽤的商业模式依旧局限在subscription model为主，⽽这种⽅式的护城河，⼏乎为零。
我想提⼀提我的思路，或者更多的是，我拓展思路的畅想。
最赚钱的——是创造资产，创造“资产幻象”。
资产的⽬的是定义⽣产⼒的产出价值，⾦融的⽬的也是为了提⾼⽣产⼒。
互联⽹的打法是低价，免费，在消费层⾯，通过低价诱导⼈们来使⽤消费，但是这会让⽤户习惯低 价，甚⾄陷⼊恶性竞争。
⽐如，打⻋服务，⼤家都补贴，就习惯了低价。

⽽另⼀种思路是，“创造资产”，如果我创造的资产让⼈们觉得可以赚钱，⽽且可以通过⾃⼰的努⼒不断让其升值，甚⾄到⼀种“奇货可居”的状态。且能够保证⾃⼰对其所有权，⽽这种创造资产的⾏为，对于每个⼈来讲，⾜够简单。那么就能形成⾮常⼴阔的市场。同时，这种资产有⼀定的效⽤，能保证对⾃⼰有⽤，不然就变成纯⾦融商品，割⾲菜了。
这种资产不⼀定需要有很⾼的流动性。只需要间歇性的出现流动性，让⼈们“认为”⼿⾥的资产是可以变现的，或者某个时候可以变现即可。
那么，⼀个原本可能只能subscription model卖19.9的AI agent，将其NFT资产化，可以1999。
但这也不够。互联⽹时代，互联⽹的数字资产不成⽴的原因是，资产就算被你买到，也会因为原创项⽬⽅“服务器关闭”⽽随时消失。⾄少现实世界，你的实体资产不会凭空突然消失。
所以，“关联实体”，实际上是互联⽹世界的资产⽆法保证，必须要以现实世界为依托。
⽽区块链，在技术上，提供了永久保存数字资产的基础设施。更伟⼤的是，提供了完全统⼀的，全球可以⾃由流通的交易市场。油画的交易场所和邮票的交易场所和明星周边的交易场所是完全不同的，但是如果都NFT化，那就可以在同⼀个交易平台上流通。
区块链，也完全可以创造出⼀个独⽴于现实实体世界，由碳、氧组成的物品的数字世界和商品体系。⼈类世界⽤了数千年创造了现有的商品体系，我们⽤⼏⼗年来创造数字世界，⾃然会有爆炸的增值。

在去年年报我就提到“这⼀切，我认为会在下个周期（2027-2030）开始逐渐⾛⼊正轨，并不是这个周期我们主要讨论的命题。我们先要解决传统世界法币资⾦和数字货币的联通、降低互联⽹世界的⽤户使⽤区块链应⽤尤其是数字货币钱包的⻔槛这两个问题。”

2025年，我们会做些什么？

2024年，从年初到年末，毫⽆疑问已经拉开了⽜市的序幕。从更⻓远的⻆度看，2025年将会是⽜市的延续，夸张⼀点，2025年末，我们有可能会⻅到“⼈类历史上最疯狂的数字货币泡沫”。

Long story short——这或许是最后⼀个属于crypto⾏业的“草莽”周期，也是最后⼀个BTC有巨⼤beta 涨幅的mega周期。BTC这轮⽜市的顶部将出现在2025年Q4，⾼点为16-22万美⾦。2024Q4，这就是新⼀轮币圈⽜市的初期。在此之前，除去现在已经发⽣的“第⼀浪”，显著的⽜市中期趋势还有两浪。

分阶段来看，2025年Q1末Q2初，随着特朗普上台，将会形成⼀波⼩⾼潮。⽽2025年Q3是⽜市爆发的关键时期——全球经济将可能逐步稳定，诸多利好加密的政策也会逐步落地，加密资产的需求有望迎来新的⾼峰。因此尽管市场表现有所波动，我们依然相信⽜市尚未结束。

⽜市不可能永远持续。我们预计，在2026年Q1，市场将逐步转⼊熊市周期。类⽐来说，当下是互联⽹时代的1999年，也就是说，未来12个⽉⽜市到达顶峰后，crypto⾏业将会像当年2000-2001年互联⽹泡沫破裂⼀样，迎来漫⻓寒冬。当然，这也是⾏业洗牌重整的机会。我很期待。因此，在⽜市⾼潮时，我们的投资策略将是及时锁定收益，并在合适的时机逐步减少仓位，提前做好市场调整的准 备。我们预测⼤⽜市在2025年Q3开始爆发，并将持续到Q4，之后市场将逐渐进⼊熊市区间。

当然，对于市场中的短期波动，我们不提倡“⼀锤⼦买卖”的策略，⽽是根据市场的变化动态调整仓 位。但是在市场接近顶部时，我们会提前逐步卖出⼀些资产，确保锁定利润。

甚⾄，做个有意思的预测，币圈泡沫到达顶峰的标志，将是巴菲特，全球这个最⼤的⽐特币反对者，开始改⼝，甚⾄参与⾏业中来。⾰命的阶段性胜利，往往就是危机潜伏最⼤的时刻。

因此，2025年我们最重要的战略任务，第⼀，就是在beta⽜市⾏情中将“⻥⾝”吃⼲净；第⼆，找到下⼀阶段，web3结合产业的⽬标赛道。随着⾏业的发展，我们需要更加注重市场中的细分产业，尤其是那些在Web3和AI、Desci、硬科技赛道中有巨⼤潜⼒的项⽬。我们的投资策略将逐步转向寻找那些具有“α”收益的项⽬，通过深度挖掘优质项⽬，在市场中获得超额收益。

写在最后

毫⽆疑问，2024年是我们基⾦过去三年中回报最丰厚的⼀年。回顾过去，我们的投资策略始终坚守⼤仓位⻓期价值投资，但也保持⼩仓位灵活的操作⻛格，以应对市场的各种变化。尽管我们在某些阶段⾯临了市场的起伏，但正是通过这种稳健的策略，我们才能够在波动中稳步前⾏。

2025年，我们依然对市场保持乐观，相信⼤⽜市的到来能够带来丰厚的回报。在这⼀过程中，我们将继续根据市场变化调整策略，保持仓位的灵活性，及时锁定收益，在2025年年底前，准备迎接可能的熊市。

对于我们来说，择时⽽动，不背⼤势，依旧是最核⼼的命题。

摘录我在去年年底所撰⽂《2024&2025，BTC的最后⼀个mega周期——BTC的价值和价格论》中的最后⼀段话：

“很多⼈问过我，你觉得BTC最⾼到底能涨到多少？

这个问题没有意义。⻩⾦价格，这些⽇⼦，这些年，也在不断创下新⾼。

有意义的问题是，BTC的价格在某个时间点之前，最⾼能涨到多少？”

拭⽬以待。

Yours Truly,
The BizantineTeam

Citations:

1. [1]https://coincredin.com/blog-detail/top-crypto-events-to-look-forward-to-in-2024
2. [2]https://explodingtopics.com/blog/cryptocurrency-trends
3. [3]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcZzhCU41Pc
4. [4]https://pony.studio/design-for-growth/top-crypto-blockchain-and-web3-events-2024
5. [5]https://beincrypto.com/top-five-crypto-events-2024/
6. [6]https://coin360.com/news/top-12-crypto-headlines-of-2024
7. [7]https://www.bitcoin.com/conferences/
8. [8]https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/crypto-market-forecast-top-trends-will-affect-crypto-2025
9. [9]https://u.today/2024-crypto-rally-is-over-with-trading-volume-down-by-64
10. [10]https://www.cryptotimes.io/2024/12/22/a-throwback-at-the-major-events-of-crypto-space-in-2024/

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